This is my eight hundredth post.
So that’s that, then.
Alex Salmond will this week publish a document pretty much saying that the SNP are going to ask people in pubs, at bus stops and what have you whether or not they support independence, those people are mostly going to say no, and the SNP is just going to live with that, thereby negating the whole purpose of its existence. Salmond’s own backbench fundamentalists will be incandescent, of course. But will they break away? They might, but I really do doubt it.
Salmond has tasted the British taxpayer-funded salary and expenses of First Minister, in addition to those of an MSP, and indeed in addition to those of a member of the House of Commons, which he now absolutely never attends. He has been not just brought in, but bought in, and he will not be selling up any time soon. Furthermore, he has been sworn of the Privy Council, and would at least arguably be in breach of that Oath if he proceeded towards independence. Any SNP First Minister will always be in both of those positions.
So that’s that, then.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Why would it be a breach of the oath?
ReplyDeleteAnyway by convention all heads of government in Commonwealth countrie were/are members. So technically Nehru in your eyes broke the oath by declaring India a republic.
We could hang him for it but rather inconveniently he is dead and cremated.
Yes, I suppose he did breach it. And I can't see any possible doubt that attempting to break up the very United Kingdom herself would be a breach of the Oath.
ReplyDeleteBut I note that you have not answered the main point: that Salmond has absolutely no intention of doing any such thing, and that nor would any other SNP First Minister. That, you know to be the case.
He just announced the White Paper this lunchtime on the referendum. He knows that he will not get the bill through Parliament but has scored already a victory of sorts by getting Labour to sign up to looking into more powers for Holyrood - something they were adamantly against just a few months ago-----.
ReplyDeleteMcConnell is trying to justify the U-turn by saying then was not the right time but now is. He got a savaging in the Scotsman over it.
So-
Does Salmond want independence?
Yes
Does Salmond want to push ahead with a referendum?
Yes
Does he think he will get the bill through?
No
Does he think he would win a referendum if it took place in the next year or two?
Probably not which is why he is pitching for a multi-option referendum which would see the defeat of an independence motion but would most likely approve a mandate for a demand for more powers for the Parliament. So even if his dream does not come true, he does have a consolation prize.
Would a defeat on independence bury it as an issue?
Unless there was some sort of crisis, the issue would probably go away for a couple of decades. A bit like the Quebec referendum or indeed the occassional referendum on Puerto Rico's status
Would a defeat split the SNP?
Likely although the main boatrockers such as Jim Sillars and his wife Margot MacDonald (both out of the SNP - Sillars has not spoken to Salmond since 1992) have refused so far to become king and queen o'er the water on the referendum issue. As Magnus Linklater pointed out in the Times Scotland today, the Parti Quebecois have not split despite two defeated referendums.