Yet Another Cameron "Poll Lead"

This time in the Guardian, on which see below. Don't believe a word of it. It is psephologically impossible for the Tories to win the next Election, the swings involved being off the chart of reasonable possibility.

The Guardian now might as well be called the Cameron, since (without changing one jot of its editorial position) it is the nearest thing to a fanzine among the national newspapers, and contains nothing of the critical approach found in the Daily Telegraph or the Daily Mail. Why do those crowing about this "lead" wish to side with the Guardian? And why do they want the same outcome as Tony Blair wants, and for which he is undoubtedly going to vote in the privacy of a polling booth? Be in no doubt, Blair is going to vote Tory: he wants to be succeeded by David Cameron rather than by Gordon Brown. And that, of course, is purely for class reasons, since there is no political difference.

In any case, the aim of opinion polls is not to measure public opinion, but to influence it. In this case, it is to influence it in favour of making Labour feel compelled to choose an Oxonian Leader instead of Gordon Brown. PMs are allowed to have an Oxford degree, or no degree: that is The Rule. And Brown falls into neither category.

Anyone who really does think that polls are there to measure public opinion should have stopped paying attention to them 15 years ago, when they mis-predicted the 1992 General Election by more people than there were living in the United Kingdom at the time, or whatever it was.

This latest one, like all of them these days, has had to be recalculated to exclude the constant 34-37% that says, not that it "doesn't know", but rather that it is determined not to vote next time. What if, between now and then, a movement were to arise which was capable of taking even half of those missing votes?

And where was this polling actually conducted? No doubt in the South-East, where the Tories already hold most of the seats anyway, having re-captured most of their 1997 losses there. A fat lot of good that has done them. Meanwhile, they are in a worse state than ever in Scotland, Wales, the North and the Midlands, where their loss of first many and then most of their seats first nearly and then actually cost them office in 1992 and 1997 respectively; and in the West Country, where their battle against the Liberals makes the difference between a majority Government and a hung Parliament at every General Election.

But will anyone have been polled in Scotland, Wales, the North, the Midlands or the West Country? No, of course not!