But Will They Do It?

An extraordinary exchange this afternoon with an old friend who moves in the most exalted political circles. Apparently, since there certainly won't now be a General Election before June 2010, plans are afoot to change the electoral law quite dramatically between now and then.

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and each of the nine English regions will each be given 50 MPs for ever. In Scotland, Wales, the three Northern regions, and London, these will continue to be elected by First Past The Post. But in Northern Ireland, the two Midland regions, and the three Southern regions outside London, each of 10 constituencies would elect five MPs by voting for one candidate with the top five declared elected at the end, on an "experimental" basis. Of course, that experiment would never actually be brought to an end, and the Tories would be reduced to fewer than one hundred seats for ever.

Will they do it? The retention of FPTP in the Labour heartlands (which London, the North and the English-speaking parts of Wales remain, though only in the absence of any alternative) would prevent the realignment that would be brought about by the introduction of the other system throughout the country. So only one thing makes me think that they won't go through with it: the Labour Party in the South outside London is quite commonly very left-wing indeed, and this way there would always be 30 MPs selected by such activists. Labour's high command wouldn't want that.