Before he lost his seat to Jared O'Mara, the once again newly unemployed Nick Clegg had led the more pro-austerity and pro-war party to the Coalition that had ended with that party's loss of 49 out of 57 seats. But Clegg himself is still only 57. The Liberal Democrats must be in dread that he might now be planning a comeback.
Secure in the knowledge that Clegg was on the other side of the world, the Lib Dems have brought themselves back up to third party status, with an impressive 72 seats, and with a leading role in the opposition to the two-child benefit cap, to the withdrawal of the Winter Fuel Payment, to the taxation of family farming out of existence, to the 50 per cent increase in bus fares, to the betrayal of the WASPI women (even if they do have some nerve there), and to the genocide of Gaza. Almost immediately, the Coalition felt like longer ago than it had really been. More than anyone else, the Lib Dems want to keep it that way.
“Secure in the knowledge that Clegg was on the other side of the world, the Lib Dems have brought themselves back up to third party status”
ReplyDeleteNo they haven’t-their vote share only increased by half a percentage point since the last election. Third party status belongs to Reform UK, who got more votes than the Liberal Democrats and are far outpolling them.
That's not how it works, dear.
DeleteOne of the biggest difficulties facing Badenoch will be wrenching seats back from the Lib Dems. Down here, on current polling, Winchester and Chichester are likely to remain yellow.
ReplyDeleteClegg has lost his Meta gig but at least he got it, Danny Alexander still has his at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, we are talking about two of the most powerful companies in the world. Farage is a presenter on a niche entertainment channel and a waiter for Trump and Musk until they get sick of him.
They will also grow sick of each other, quite possibly this year.
DeleteReform had better win the expected Runcorn and Helsby byelection, because either the Lib Dems or the Greens would stand a very good chance of winning the next byelection in a previously Labour seat in the South, or the deep countryside, or a university area. Either of them might give the Conservatives a run for their money in any of those places, too.
I’m simply pointing out the Lib Dems haven’t “brought themselves back” as you claimed because their vote only went up half a percentage point and they got less votes than Reform. They picked seats by default without any increase in popularity just because so many 2019 Tory voters stayed at home while another 25% voted Reform.
ReplyDelete“One of the biggest difficulties facing Badenoch will be wrenching seats back from the Lib Dems.”
Her main threat is Reform to the right of her party. The Lib Dems only won a mere 7% of Tory votes in 2024 while 25% of Tory voters switched to Reform.
You simply do not understand how First Past the Post works. And it is the simplest electoral system that there could possibly be.
DeleteOf course I understand how it works. What I said is also what the pollsters say-the increased Lib Dem tally of seats did not reflect any increase in support for them or voters switching to them en masse but rather a collapse of the Tory vote with most staying at home or voting Reform.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds as if you are coming to an understanding, yes. Keep going.
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