Political prisoner, activist, journalist, hymn-writer, emerging thinktanker, aspiring novelist, "tribal elder", 2019 parliamentary candidate for North West Durham, Shadow Leader of the Opposition, "Speedboat", "The Cockroach", eagerly awaiting the second (or possibly third) attempt to murder me.
Sunday, 30 March 2014
Poll Position
I hate
to point this out, but a lead is a lead, people.
When the Prime
Minister's party is cock-a-hoop at being "only" one point behind (in one
poll), then it is all over.
In three polls. And of course, as with any opposition, their poll rating only falls before and during an election, so they won't be in the lead at all.
Yes it did. Labour were at some points polling over 55%,were on 47% before the election and got 43% on election day, while tne Tories polled 24% and got 31% on election day. No poll ever showed them as close to the Tory score as they are now. If they drop by even half of a similar amount from the current 36-35 average, it's over.
New Labour, but the point is they only did so because they were already so vastly, incredibly far ahead anyway. 2014 Labour have a popular vote lead so small as to be meaningless. Come May 2015 they WILL have fallen behind.
It's too late now. 1992-1997 was also a five-year Parliament, and Labour was ahead for almost all of it. Like this one.
The Conservatives have stopped even bothering to behave like a governing party. They are openly having a post-defeat Leadership Election. Already. With more than a year left to go.
In three polls. And of course, as with any opposition, their poll rating only falls before and during an election, so they won't be in the lead at all.
ReplyDeleteDid that happen in 1997?
ReplyDeleteThis Election has been over for years.
Yes it did. Labour were at some points polling over 55%,were on 47% before the election and got 43% on election day, while tne Tories polled 24% and got 31% on election day. No poll ever showed them as close to the Tory score as they are now. If they drop by even half of a similar amount from the current 36-35 average, it's over.
ReplyDeleteAnd who won the 1997 Election?
ReplyDeleteNew Labour, but the point is they only did so because they were already so vastly, incredibly far ahead anyway. 2014 Labour have a popular vote lead so small as to be meaningless. Come May 2015 they WILL have fallen behind.
ReplyDeleteIt's too late now. 1992-1997 was also a five-year Parliament, and Labour was ahead for almost all of it. Like this one.
ReplyDeleteThe Conservatives have stopped even bothering to behave like a governing party. They are openly having a post-defeat Leadership Election. Already. With more than a year left to go.
Anon is right.
ReplyDeleteThe most extraordinary point is how pathetic Labour's poll ratings are-especially if this Coalition is as hated as they allege.
That makes their poll performance as the main Oppposition all the more laughable.
It bears out Peter Hitchens point that the two parties are now just dead husks in an unpopularity contest-a race to the lowest poll rating.
The Tories are only just winning that contest-by a point.
What, by being a point behind? Although it is back up to four again tonight.
ReplyDeleteA lead is a lead, and Labour needs only a very small one indeed for an outright win.