The SNP and Plaid Cymru refused to participate in a
PM piece on what the other parties thought of the Leaders' Debate, because they wanted something longer and more exclusive. That would be the SNP, now quite likely to win fewer seats than the Tories in Scotland. And Plaid Cymru, a racing certainty to win fewer seats than the Tories in Wales.
Do you have any idea how much of a swing is required for the Scottish Conservatives to win six seats? Do you have any idea when there was last a swing to the Conservatives in any six of their target seats or the predecessors thereof? There is probaly a bloc of SCottish voters who don't want t ovote SNP in a Westminster election, seeing them as irrelevant. Conventional wisdom used to hold that they would vote Labour. There is now a feeling that that bloc has shrunk and that they are more likely to vote Lib Dem, reducing Labour majorities and, perhaps, unseating a couple of Labour MPs. That would only deliver victoris to the Consevatives if they are already a close second. They are second in a few seats, but it is rarely close. As far as the campaign goes, they are the whipping boys, with Labour and the SNP both claiming that a vote for the other is the same as a vote for the Tories, which they believe that no-one wants.
ReplyDeleteKeep telling yourself that.
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