Political prisoner, activist, journalist, hymn-writer, emerging thinktanker, aspiring novelist, "tribal elder", 2019 parliamentary candidate for North West Durham, Shadow Leader of the Opposition, "Speedboat", "The Cockroach", eagerly awaiting the second (or possibly third) attempt to murder me.
Wednesday, 24 September 2008
Recessions and Elections
Recessions make people cautious, and so likely to vote for the status quo rather than for change. If David Davis, say, were Tory Leader, with someone equally dependable-looking as Shadow Chancellor, then things might be different. But Cameron and Osborne scattering stardust about the place? Against the man who by Spring 2010 will be dear old "oh well, at least we know what we're getting" Gordon Brown? Forget it. Remember, the economy had picked up by 1997. If it hadn't, then Major would have beaten, not Smith or Brown, but certainly Blair.
On the other hand Harold Wilson beat the Tories in 1964 on the basis they were heading for a collapse of the £ & Ted Heath in turn beat Wilson in 1970 because the £ had dropped. In the US Clinton beat Bush because of "the economy stupid" & though I find it incredible, the economy seems to be a positive issue for Obama.
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