A Lisbon Referendum: Who Would Win?

So asked Sir Peter Viggers of Gordon Brown. Sir Peter clearly assumed that the No side would win. But why?

In 1976, the polls were two to one against at the start of the referendum campaign. But the final result was two to one in favour. After a month or six weeks of the BBC on the issue, the same thing would happen again.

Instead of a referendum, Parliament should simply have thrown out this Treaty. The failure of the Tories to put down an amendment to that effect, without mentioning a referendum, says everything that needs to be said about them.